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The European central bank will change the policy?

2017-02-23

Europe's economic recovery appears to be allowed, the quarterly growth rate of 0.4% of GDP in the fourth quarter of 2016, the annual growth of 1.7%, is 1.8% lower than the earlier estimate of 1.8%, is still fairly good, reflect the take off and trump and selected as the President of the United States of the two black swans, at least until now, has not been as to hurt the root of Europe's economy. Business survey results show that in 2017 years, the economy of the euro area's fundamental key, still can be in spite of German business sentiment Index CFDs reflect part of the enterprise for the New Deal have doubts.



But in terms of individual countries, economic development priorities of non-uniform, exist a big gap between countries. France in the fourth quarter GDP growth was 0.4%, and the expected, the annual growth rate of 1.3%, recovery are in the right track. The situation is far from Italy, bad bank remains unresolved, the unemployment rate rose to 12%, youth unemployment problem is serious, the unemployment rate of 40%. Germany is the best, the unemployment rate to 5.9%, high for the area of trade and current account surpluses. On the whole, the euro zone's unemployment rate has fallen to 9.6%, compared to the United Kingdom, the United States is less than 5% unemployment rate, the number of course not proud, but that is the lowest since May 2009.



As for inflation, the price back to $50 a barrel, the rate of inflation has been sharply from 1.1% in December 飊 rose to 1.8% in January, the European central bank's target is 2%, which is the most close to the target level since 2013, but is a flash in the pan remains to be seen. As is known to all, the only authorized by the European central bank is to stabilize prices, now Europe is gradually away from the deflation, the market will become more and more attention, in the face of rising inflation, the European central bank will change the current understanding of loose monetary policy. The assets of the European central bank plans to buy 780 billion euros this year, President Mario draghi said not long ago will unswervingly implement the plan, "continuous tong zhang is not a fundamental change of circumstances, any discussion about reducing purchases is impossible."



Back look at recent account information, and inflation is extensively throughout Europe, for the first time in four years, is the proof of the central bank to fight deflation produced results, but the central bank is reversed course I'm afraid not, because draghi think much of the current inflation is driven by rising oil prices, so it is short of, can't continue, single core inflation stubbornly stuck at 0.9%, far from target 2% or relatively know why.



March expires in December last year the European central bank announced the planned bond buying program continue to the end of the year, why not half a year, a year, instead of nine months, if the problem in this year's national election timetable, the answer is obvious, the European central bank should consider the tide of contingency, to prevent the European black swan, financial stability is necessary, in the French election in May, the German election in September, for national elections to consider later, when it refused to turn 軚, continue to the market reassurances is completely understandable.



Released last week of January meeting records have such a words: : "the central bank believe in promoting sustainable inflation still have not made enough progress, this can't be satisfied." Words reflect to the uncertainty of the global political attention, let alone reduce scale of QE is to even discuss premature.



Draghi to resist pressure from the United States, not only has to deal with the largest members of accountability in Germany with fierce fierce. Election, German politicians inevitably less policy of the European central bank easing Germany traditionally a flashpoint inflation and much blame. The new us administration to ease financial regulation and the tendency of exclusivity also let his deep thought, the former with Europe increasing bank capital requirements in order to consolidate the stability of the financial market policy direction, which add uncertainty for the global economy. Draghi companies hard, is not without reason.

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