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The dollar's rebound has been bumpy

2017-10-12

At present, the dollar index does not have the basis of sustained weakening. The small adjustment after the strength is the necessary process of the large energy savings. Will usher in the federal reserve meeting minutes in the morning, because the last resolution hawks, the dollar continued strong almost inevitable, additional technology because the dollar has callback, entry point is very appropriate, the euro in the Catalan situation, so in the current environment, the dollar index were stimulated the possibility is very high.



One, [foreign exchange market] a bumpy road to the dollar index, short or will test the right shoulder of the shoulder to form 92.5.


1. Multiple empty views on the message face:


$(negative) : the fed FOMC meeting minutes in September, according to most fed officials believe interest rates again this year are reasonable, but some officials still think to raise interest rates or not should be depend on the future performance of the data, the main source of concern is low inflation. Most fed officials worry that a drop in inflation is not a temporary phenomenon, with some arguing that it should be delayed until inflation starts to rise. Mr Kaplan says the fed needs to slow down so that it doesn't have to brake sharply after rising inflation; Mr Evans said it would be possible to achieve a 2 per cent inflation target by 2019, which would require a greater degree of easing. U.S. Treasury secretary nuchin recommended that the centrist doves be fed chairman of the federal reserve.


Crude oil (neutral) : Opec's monthly crude oil market report showed Opec production rose 88,000 barrels per day (BBB)/solstice 32,500 BPD/day in September, while output was revised up to 32659,000 b/d in August. However, the 11 Opec countries that needed to cut production had cut production rates in September from 83 percent in August to 98 percent. API crude oil inventories in the United States were significantly better than the previous value -407.9 and expected - 180, which was actually reported as 310.


2. Multi-aerial view of technology (more representative) :


The dollar (a bumpy road to the rebound, focusing on the 92.5 shoulder to the right shoulder brace) : resistance 93.50, supporting 92.50.


Euro (target restoration, focus on 1.19) shoulder top right shoulder formation pressure) : resistance 1.19, support 1.174.


Sterling (target restoration, concern of daily line SAR stop loss indicator 1.330 front line pressure) : resistance 1.330, support 1.314.


The Australian dollar (tentative signs of stabilization, but whether it should rebound) : resistance 0.787, supported 0.774.


The U.S. and Japan (supported by the resistance to stay cautious, focus on 200MA gain) : resistance 113.5, support 111.8.


Mei ga (index correction, concern 1.240 line support, caution) : resistance 1.2600, support 1.2400.


Merryl (upper drag appears, but the underside support remains) : resistance 0.9800, support 0.9650.


Gold (the index is gradually fixed, but no more than a thousand three cannot be pursued, cautious) : resistance 1300, support 1280.


Crude oil (though there is upward momentum, but the bulls are not strong enough, short-term caution) : resistance of 51.80, support 50.30.



3. Market attention today:


France September CPI monthly rate


The IEA released its monthly oil market report


Eurozone August industrial output monthly rate


From the United States to October 7th, the number of weekly jobless claims and the September rate of U.S. PPI


From the United States to the week of October 6, the EIA gas inventory


At the annual general meeting of the international financial association in 2017, fed governor colin Powell gave a keynote speech on emerging markets


The President of the European central bank, Mario draghi, participated in a panel discussion at the fourth "rethinking macro policy" meeting of the peterson institute for international economics


At the peterson institute for international economics, brainard brainard participated in the monetary policy panel discussion at the peterson institute for international economics


From the United States to the week of October 6, the EIA crude oil inventory

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