News and analysis

Gold was up for four consecutive days


International spot gold week 3 (October 11), after the minutes of the fed minutes, the short line shot up nearly $5, with a maximum of $1,291.50 per ounce, and the dollar index short line down, closing at 93. But the price of gold fell back to a small rally, and still recorded its fourth straight day of gains. The fed minutes released on Wednesday showed that most members expressed concern about the inflation slowdown, with some officials saying they would raise rates after inflation was raised. Most fed officials think it would be reasonable to raise rates again this year. Most fed officials worry that falling inflation is not a temporary phenomenon; It takes patience to boost inflation; A small number of officials believe that the next move will be based on economic data. Some officials hope to delay raising rates until inflation starts to pick up. After the fed's announcement, the fed's probability of a 25-point rise in December to the 1.25-1.5% range is 86.7 percent, while the probability of a march to the region is 59.2 percent.

According to Spanish media said on Wednesday that the Spanish government asked catalonian autonomous region chairman puig monte in October 16 on whether to show the Spanish government has announced that the Catalan independence. The U.S. labor department data released on Monday showed that the number of JOLTS vacancies in the U.S. in August was 608.2 million, slightly below expectations of 6.35 million. JOLTS retreated slightly after two consecutive months of record highs, but the index remained above the 6 million mark.

Released on Wednesday, the fed's minutes for gold has a certain support, but often still remains to be seen, from the point of the disk, the strength of the support is weak, the gold is still facing upward resistance. With expectations of higher fed interest rates rising and political stability in north Korea and Spain stabilizing, gold has been weakening in terms of safe-haven support. But on Wednesday, north Korea showed signs of extreme rhetoric from President trump, and the geopolitical turmoil was not easily appeased. If gold holds steady at $1,290 an ounce, it could hit $1, 300 an ounce

Wednesday trend statement

International spot gold week 3 (October 11) the price of the gold after a small rise after the market opened in early trading at $1287.46 per ounce, then fell into a consolidation and a lot of air. The price of the market in Europe continues to consolidate and prices fluctuate a little. Beautiful city gold market weakening, intraday fell sharply, its intraday low of $1284.02 an ounce after a strong rebound, long pull litre, gold prices surged, recorded turn slightly lower after the intraday high of $1293.46 an ounce, eventually closed at $1291.50 an ounce.

International spot gold three (October 11) of the city in early trading opened at $1287.46 an ounce, minimum test of $1284.02 an ounce, up to $1293.46 an ounce, closed at $1291.50 an ounce, up $4.04, or 0.31%.

Fundamentals positive factors:

1. On Wednesday (4 October), the ADP employment report was released. Data showed that the number of jobs in the us rose by 135,000 in September, less than the 151,000 that bloomberg had expected, and significantly less than the 237,000 in August, the smallest increase since October 2016.

Us consumer spending rose 0.1 per cent in August from the previous month, according to new data from the us Commerce Department. Personal income rose 0.2 per cent month-on-month, both in line with expectations. U.S. consumer spending cooled in August as auto purchases fell, partly reflecting the impact of hurricane Harvey. Data showed the core PCE price index rose 1.3 percent in August, the lowest level since November 2015, the sixth consecutive monthly decline, the worst performance in two years.

The number of U.S. jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 272,000 last week, the labor department said on Thursday. Furthermore claims for jobless benefits four-week average rose to 277750, as the highest since February 2016, because after attacks, hurricane in the south of Florida, Georgia, and a rise in applications

The August sales index for U.S. home sales in August fell 2.6 percent, less than the previous and expected.

Fundamental bearish factors:

1. The U.S. department of labor (DOL) on Friday (6 October), according to data released on September non-farm payrolls 33000 people in the United States, far less than the market expected an increase of 80000 people, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2% in September, in nearly 17 years since the lows. The data showed that the number of non-farm payrolls fell by 33,000 in September, the first negative gain since October 2010. The market is expected to increase by 8.0 million, with the previous value increasing by 156,000. The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.2 percent in September, the lowest since December 2000, and is expected to be 4.4 percent. The previous figure was 4.4 percent. The labor department also revised the number of non-farm payrolls to an increase of 1690, 000 in August.

U.S. economic data on Thursday boosted the dollar and boosted expectations that interest rates would rise in the United States. Data showed that the trade deficit narrowed in August, with exports of goods and services rising to a high of two-and-a-half years, while initial jobless claims fell more than expected. U.S. factory orders in August performed better than expected, and core capital orders increased, too.

3. On Wednesday (October 4) released by the United States on September the ISM non-manufacturing index is 59.8, the highest since August 2005 and record the third high, clear out nearly a one-year low in July, according to the vitality of the U.S. economy after a hurricane.

4. The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for September was published on Monday (October 2) at 60.8. Higher than the previous value of 58.8 and expectation 58; New highs since May 2011; The September ISM employment index hit its highest level since June 2011.

Afternoon looking

A weekly gold survey released on Friday (October 6) by Kitco showed that Wall Street professionals were finally turning short after 12 weeks of bullish gold. In a survey of professionals, 15 people surveyed, 10 or 67 percent said gold would fall this week, and 4 or 27 percent thought gold would rise this week, with 1 or 7 percent expected to do so. The market participants included gold traders, investment Banks, futures traders and technical analysts. At the same time, 2,756 ordinary investors took part in the poll, and 1204 or 44 percent said gold would fall. Another 1017 or 37 per cent said gold would rise, while 533 or 19 per cent said gold would be a consolidation.

Jens Pedersen, a senior analyst at the Danish bank in Copenhagen, said: "these concerns about the independence of Catalonia are fading and giving the euro some support." Jens Pedersen said the release of the minutes would have a significant impact, as the fed could support the expected rate increase in December and a third rate hike this year.

(3), a strategist at ubs in London Teves said in a report "as stocks hit a record high, gold also looks very attractive, as a hedge, in particular, the correlation between stock market this year is still in a negative position."

In a report, commerzbank said that "silver was back at $17 an ounce yesterday, but still no more than the technically important 200-day average." So far, silver has outperformed gold in October, and the ratio of gold/silver has fallen from 77 to 75.

5. Information website Economies.com released on Wednesday (October 11) said in a report, gold prices continue to consolidate, stabilised but still above the $1281.17 an ounce, this makes our next moves remain bullish, 4 hours online random fluctuations shows the positive support, waiting for the gold price to target $1299.20 an ounce, after is the level of $1321.49 an ounce, gold prices stabilised above $1281.17 an ounce is one of the important conditions to target.

6. In a report released on Tuesday (10 October), commerzbank said the gold premium reflected improved demand in China and India's major gold consumers. After a long slump, India's demand for gold seems to be picking up again. India's gold price has traded at a premium for the world market for the first time in nearly three months last month, analysts said.

Thursday focus

The number of people on unemployment benefits (10,000) from the United States to 7 October

U.S. monthly PPI for September

21:45 the U.S. -oct. 8 bloomberg consumer confidence index

22:30 U.S. to October 6 the EIA gas inventory (100 million cubic feet)

Jerome Powell, a member of the federal reserve board of governors in Washington, dc, addresses emerging markets at the 2017 annual general meeting of the international financial association

Mario Draghi, President of the European central bank in Washington, dc, attended the fourth annual "rethinking macro policy" conference hosted by the IMF and the peterson institute for international economics

Lael Brainard, a Washington fed governor, participated ina monetary policy panel discussion at the peterson institute for international economic research

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